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Natural gas futures for September, 2014

Published Aug 27, 2014, 7:57pm

Natural gas futures retraced Tuesdays gains and retreated on fears of the tropical storm threats being largely over-blown, a lack of fundamental support and some “positioning” ahead of the EIA storage report. The expectation was for an injection of ~84Bcf which would have outpaced the prior year and 5yr average by 26 and 36 Bcf respectively. Revisions to weather outlooks added to the bearish sentiment as the NWS offered some signs of fall as temperatures across the country are expected to moderate during the next 8-14 days. Short term momentum is higher, but fundamentals point lower until we can get a clearer picture of the long range weather forecast.

Month Price Change Change % High Low Est. Vol.
Sep 14 $3.823 ($0.054) (1.4%) $3.888 $3.792 97,158
Oct 14 $3.860 ($0.048) (1.2%) $3.917 $3.829 58,305
Nov 14 $3.933 ($0.044) (1.1%) $3.983 $3.902 30,643
Dec 14 $4.030 ($0.041) (1.0%) $4.081 $3.998 14,701
Jan 15 $4.108 ($0.037) (0.9%) $4.143 $4.075 17,090
Feb 15 $4.100 ($0.035) (0.9%) $4.134 4.069A 3,560
Mar 15 $4.022 ($0.033) (0.8%) $4.041 $3.990 7,859
Apr 15 $3.782 ($0.031) (0.8%) $3.820 $3.764 5,364
May 15 $3.766 ($0.028) (0.7%) $3.785 $3.752 890
June 15 $3.799 ($0.027) (0.7%) $3.816 $3.787 660
July 15 $3.836 ($0.027) (0.7%) $3.850 $3.822 264
 
Winter 14/15 $4.039 ($0.038) (0.9%)      
Winter 15/16 $4.123 ($0.016) (0.4%)      

Updated natural gas futures for April, 2014

Published Mar 27, 2014, 2:45pm

Natural gas futures held sideways in Wednesday’s session with April settling nearly a penny to the downside as options expired.  Today marks the last day settlement for the contract, we don’t anticipate a strong move in either direction into the close.  Spring weather continues to try and wrestle its way into the picture, however forecasts still call for lingering cold thru the first week of April.  Most traders are pausing here till we see our first spring injection and see just how robust it will be.  Producers are going to be extracting all they can as the race is on to fill the storage balance deficit year-over-year.  The EIA will release its weekly storage report this morning, expectations are for a net WD between 53 and 80 Bcf with consensus forming at 62 Bcf.  We look for futures to oscillate for a bit here and breakout hopefully lower.  There is still a good deal of “fear premium” baked into the coming winter.

Over the course of the next couple of months focus will shift to what will summer cooling demands be and we will again be at the mercy of the weather. From a technical perspective, support is in place at $4.40 and $4.25 while resistance is in place at $4.75 and $5.00

Month Price Change Change % High Low Est. Vol.
Apr '14 $4.402 ($0.009) (0.2%) $4.428 $4.352 17,492
May '14 $4.395 ($0.019) (0.4%) $4.426 $4.354 299,075
June '14 $4.424 ($0.019) (0.4%) $4.456 $4.385 70,140
July '14 $4.461 ($0.018) (0.4%) $4.492 $4.422 82,862
Aug '14 $4.457 ($0.017) (0.4%) $4.485 $4.420 55,546
Sep '14 $4.434 ($0.013) (0.3%) $4.458 $4.395 41,124
Oct 14 $4.447 ($0.010) (0.2%) $4.474 $4.410 132,265
Nov 14 $4.495 ($0.005) (0.1%) $4.519 $4.456 39,211
Dec 14 $4.612 ($0.004) (0.1%) $4.635 4.568A 65,609
Jan 15 $4.696 ($0.001)